A lengthy row between Russia and Tajikistan over the imprisonment of a Russian pilot, Vladimir Sadovnichy, has finally come to an end with the pilot's release on Nov 24. Yet, and in spite of various officials claims that there was nothing political about the whole episode, there are many reasons to believe that political considerations, or geopolitical considerations to be more precise, were behind the Russian government's so called "asymmetric response"; that is, mass deportation of Tajik nationals on the bases of legal and public safety concerns.

Tajikistan is a small country located in "the geophysical center of the Asian landmass". Bordered to the south by Afghanistan, to the east by China, and to the west and north by Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, Tajikistan lies at the interstices of several cultures, languages, religions, and zones of commerce. At the first glance, it ought to be confessed, it is difficult to understand the geopolitical importance of Tajikistan to Russia since they neither share a common border nor a similar culture. In fact, Tajikistan is culturally far removed from Russia. The predominant native language there is Tajik, a variant of Farsi, and it has more cultural ties to the Middle East and West Asia than to Russia. In addition, Tajikistan is of no significant commercial value to Russia. The country has virtually no oil or gas production. It is rich in metal mineral resources and has a vast hydroelectric potential, but mineral resources are plentiful in Russia and Tajikistan’s hydroelectric energy is "too far away to transport cost-effectively". Lastly, Tajikistan’s largest commodity export, aluminum, "competes with Russian domestic enterprises" rather than offering "complementary" commercial possibilities.

Nonetheless, Moscow has traditionally considered Tajikistan as instrumental in its ability to exert influence beyond its immediate neighborhood. Given its own fears of Islamic extremism as well as Chinese penetration of Central Asia, Russia has sought to maintain a strong foothold in Tajikistan so to be able to shape and/or influence political developments there to, most often than not, its own advantage.

The 1206km-long Afghanistan–Tajikistan border is defined for most of its length by the Pani or Pandzh River. Seeing the border not only as a "porous integument" through which terrorism, weapons, and drugs penetrate on route to destinations in Eurasia, but also a "cultural divide" between the values of Western civilization and the lawlessness of Afghanistan, Russian armed forces have policed the Tajik-Afghan border since the disintegration of the USSR in cooperation with the Tajik military units. On this front, the convergence of Moscow and Dushanbe threat perceptions with regard to Islamic fundamentalism has been a key facilitating factor in Russia's efforts to maintain its influence over the Tajik military and security forces.

Tajikistan, like the other Central Asian countries, is landlocked. Not long ago, Tajikistan’s road and rail access were exclusively westward-oriented. Since the late 1990s, however, Tajikistan has begun to improve its transportation network and routes in order to connect herself with the Chinese, and indeed Asian, markets more meaningfully. This is an endeavor that has received significant financial backing from Beijing, thereby causing unease amongst the Russian elites who are in a hushed and yet fierce competition with Beijing over influence in Central Asia. Of particular concern to Moscow, it ought to be noted, is the so called “eastern access” road that links the city of Murgab in Badakhshan with the city of Taxkorgan in the westernmost of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Republic in China.

As such, the recent spat over the arrest of a Russian pilot angered Moscow because Tajik government's initial decision to imprison the pilot without consulting Moscow was interpreted as a sign of assertiveness on the side of Dushanbe which appeared to be confident enough to show no regards for Moscow's concerns. This was unacceptable to Russia since its geopolitical interests require it to keep a tight hold of socio-political affairs in Tajikistan, ensuring that it remain as the dominant foreign actor there. In a sense, Russian officials feared that "pilot scenario" could have been repeated in the future had it not pressured Dushanbe to terminate it.

Interestingly, Moscow’s asymmetric response to the Sadovnichy case could be seen as a "preview of the type of reaction" the Moscow will have should Dushanbe refuse to join the Russian-led Eurasian Union proposed by Putin. This should be extremely worrying to officials in Tajikistan since Tajikistan is one of the world’s largest recipients of remittances which reached $2.1 billion in 2010 with most of the transfers coming from Russia.